MLP Premier Playoff Picture

Who still has a shot in the playoffs?

Premier teams are 50-75% through their 2024 season matches, and just 2 events remain before playoffs, starting with MLP Vegas tomorrow. Let’s take a look at who still has a chance to make it into the playoffs, and who is playing for blockage now.

According to stat nerd and friend-of-the-pod @matty_pickles, the above/below line for points needed to make it into playoffs is 37.

Current standings

Solid Playoff Contenders

Barring a collapse, these teams are going to make the playoffs.

• St. Louis Shock (1st)

  • 38 points

  • 5 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 53

  • Projection with points/match average: 49

  • Remaining opponents: Carolina, UBD, Ranchers, Flash, Drive

• Dallas Flash (2nd)

  • 37 points

  • 5 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 52

  • Projection with points/match average: 47

  • Remaining opponents: Sliders, Drive, Ranchers, Squeeze, Shock

• Texas Ranchers (3rd)

  • 35 points

  • 5 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 50

  • Projection with points/match average: 45

  • Remaining opponents: 5s, Mad Drops, Flash, Shock, Sliders

• New Jersey 5s (4th)

  • 31 points

  • 9 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 58

  • Projection with points/match average: 51

  • Remaining opponents: Ranchers, Carolina, Squeeze (x2), Sliders, Drive, Hustlers, Mad Drops, DC

The Shock, Flash, Ranchers and 5s, for all intents and purposes, are locks for the playoffs.  They’re fighting for seeding at this point, which is more important than it may seem.  The 4-6 seeds will play each other in Dallas before the World Championships, while the 1 & 2 seeds get an automatic bye to the playoff finals in Orlando.  In addition, the top seed of each matchup will get the option to select or react for every game during the match.  This is an enormous strategic advantage if used properly, and why the 5s will be such a dangerous team in the playoffs.  Their current path would give them the #1 seed and allow them to send ALW/Will Howells out against the weaker mixed team to help force a Dreambreaker in every matchup.  Which MLP team has the singles depth to beat the 5s in a Dreambreaker when you have Will Howells serving at his shoulder and ALW pumped full of adrenaline?  Aside from the 5s, the Ranchers seem to be getting better every match and Quang Duong’s ridiculous serves and groundstrokes create so many free points mixed.  Finally, the favorites when the season started (Shock and Flash) are still playing consistently great, but the Flash suffer from low energy at times and the Shock rely too heavily on Hayden and Gabe’s aggressive play being “on.” While these two teams are difficult to beat, catch them on the right day and they aren’t scary and very beatable.

Teams in the hunt

Already within the top 6, these teams have a solid chance to retain their position and make playoffs.

• D.C. Pickleball Club (5th)

  • 30 points

  • 6 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 48

  • Projection with points/match average: 41

  • Remaining Opponents: Hustlers, Squeeze, Mad Drops, 5s, Drive

• NY Hustlers (6th)

  • 30 points

  • 5 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 45

  • Projection with points/match average: 38

  • Remaining Opponents: DC, Squeeze, 5s, Drive, Mad Drops

DC seems very safe to make the playoffs, despite being point-tied with NY.  DC just seems more consistent across all 4 games and Glozman is continuing to improve her shot selection and reduce her unforced errors. This leaves the NY Hustlers in the final spot trying to fend off a Carolina team that actually seems to care now, and a Squeeze team that has drastically underperformed but has 11 matches left to play. 

“So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

Yes, there’s a chance, but these teams need DC or NY to have a meltdown to squeeze their way into playoffs.

• Carolina Pickleball Club (7th)

  • 20 points

  • 7 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 41

  • Projection with points/match average: 29

  • Remaining Opponents: 5s, Shock, Drive, UBD, Squeeze

• Orlando Squeeze (10th)

  • 13 points

  • 11 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 46

  • Projection with points/match average: 25

  • Remaining Opponents: Sliders, UBD, Flash, Carolina, Mad Drops (x2), 5s (x2), Drive, Hustlers, DC

Ben and Collin have snapped into it the last few events, which must mean they’re taking the season more seriously. After trading for Kaitlyn Christian (who joins Brooke Buckner), they now have two powerhouse singles-playing women. Is dominating Dreambreakers their strategy? Meanwhile, the Squeeze seem ALMOST out of it. They have an uphill battle with Tyson’s recently announced Achilles tendonitis and their loaded schedule of difficult matchups (Flash, Carolina, 5s TWICE, Hustlers, DC).  Unless their trade pickup Meghan Dizon sparks some magic, they’ll be squeezed out of a post-season appearance.

Out of contention

Utah and Columbus are officially, mathematically eliminated at this point, but they could play strategically to impact their opponents’ playoff picture. AZ Drive and Mad Drops are not formally out, but unlikely to make it (barring something catastrophic).

• Columbus Sliders (8th)

  • 15 points

  • 5 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 30

  • Projection with points/match average: 19

  • Remaining Opponents: Squeeze, Flash, 5s, Ranchers, Mad Drops

• LA Mad Drops (9th)

  • 14 points

  • 11 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 47

  • Projection with points/match average: 27

  • Remaining Opponents: Ranchers, Drive (x2), UBD, Squeeze (x2), Sliders, DC, 5s, Hustlers

• Utah Black Diamonds (11th)

  • 13 points

  • 5 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 28

  • Projection with points/match average: 16

  • Remaining Opponents: Squeeze, Shock, Mad Drops, Carolina, Drive

• AZ Drive (12th)

  • 12 points

  • 10 matches left to play

  • Max season-ending points: 42

  • Projection with points/match average: 21

  • Remaining Opponents: Flash, Mad Drops, Carolina, Shock, UBD, 5s, Mad Drops, Squeeze, DC, Hustlers

The AZ Drive never found the magic we thought Andrei and Dylan could bring, with Andrei getting suspended midyear and Dylan seeming to take a step backwards the last few months.  The UBD have some tough matchups, but have the opportunity to play the role of season-spoiler with matches vs the Squeeze, Mad Drops, and Carolina.  CG & Tyler’s partnership is really melding in their PPA events together, but with Connor Pardoe making ~8 trades on the trading deadline and picking up Genie Bouchard, it will be very difficult for them to win women’s and both mixed matches.  Wins will mostly likely come from Dreambreakers with the men expected to carry a heavy load.  The Sliders lost Jay for the rest of the season (knee) and are a bigger mess than your large intestine after a visit to White Castle.  We don’t expect much from them, despite Riley’s resurgence in the PPA.  Finally, the Mad Drops with 11 matches left to play have a lot of opportunity, but with Thomas Wilson ruled out for Las Vegas, we don’t see them having the firepower to get the wins needed to climb the standings.  AJ Koller has been tapped to sub for Thomas Wilson for Vegas. Expecting a team to average 2 pts/match without their top male is too much to expect.

MLP Vegas kicks off tomorrow at the Darling Tennis Center, where 10 Premier teams and 4 Challenger teams face-off to determine their playoff (or promotion, in the case of Challenger) fate. The event wraps Wednesday, so we hope you have a slow work week!

Teams playing:

Premier Level Teams
AZ Drive, Carolina Pickleball Club, Columbus Sliders, Dallas Flash, LA Mad Drops, NJ 5s, Orlando Squeeze, St. Louis Shock, Texas Ranchers, Utah Black Diamonds 

Challenger Level Teams
Bay Area Breakers, California Black Bears, Las Vegas Night Owls, SoCal Hard Eights